Xinyue Zhao

Xinyue Zhao

PhD Candidate in Finance
Scheller College of Business
Georgia Institute of Technology

xzhao470@gatech.edu/CV/LinkedIn

About

My research studies corporate debt and financial distress, and how they propagate to households, with particular attention to credit and borrowing. I also study how AI agents and machine learning can open new empirical questions in economics and finance. My research interests include household debt, corporate debt, financial distress, and AI in finance.

Publications

EMNLP 2026 Main · Oral

Can LLMs Take the Pulse of the Economy? A Real-Time Evaluation of LLM Nowcasts on Macroeconomic Indicators Website

Xinyue Zhao*, Ruiyi Zhang*, Liqin Ye, Rui Cao, Pengtao Xie, Sudheer Chava†

LiveMacroEval is a live, contamination-resistant benchmark testing whether web-enabled LLM agents can nowcast 16 major U.S. macroeconomic indicators before their official release. Across six months of hourly predictions, LLM agents perform broadly comparably to Federal Reserve nowcasts and the Bloomberg professional consensus.

Working papers

Retailer Bankruptcy and Its Spillover to Consumer Credit

Sudheer Chava, Rohan Ganduri, Yafei Zhang, Xinyue Zhao

Retailer bankruptcies trigger widespread retail credit card closures and sharp cuts to consumer credit limits. Credit-constrained households cannot replace the lost credit and face persistent declines in borrowing capacity, revealing a retail credit card channel through which retailer bankruptcies impose lasting externalities on households.

Presented/Scheduled
AFA 2027 · NFA 2026 · Boulder Summer Conference 2026 · GT–Atlanta Fed Household Finance Conference 2026

Draft available on request.

The “Myth” of Covenant Violation Waiver

Sudheer Chava, Shunlan Fang, Xinyue Zhao

Using a fine-tuned RoBERTa model on corporate filings, we find that waivers are granted in 67% of covenant violations, 22% of them involving material terms. Waived firms face larger increases in interest expenses, deeper investment cuts, and higher bankruptcy risk, consistent with creditor rent extraction rather than pure borrower relief.

Presented/Scheduled
AI & Future of Finance Conference 2026 · Georgia Tech 2025

Draft available on request.

Teaching

MGT 4066: Corporate Restructuring 2026 Spring